AFG · Kabul · 42.0M people
Population
42.0M
GDP
$17B
Top Disruption
Political
90/100
Future Path
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Afghanistan faces concentrated disruption across 4 dimensions, centered on political risk (90/100). Economic disruption (88/100) and political risk form the dual pressure points to watch.
Extreme — Active disruption underway in all sectors — especially finance
High — Active disruption underway in key sectors
High — Building pressure in key sectors
High — Building pressure in key sectors
Moderate — Building pressure in key sectors
Moderate — Building pressure in key sectors
Moderate — Moderate exposure across select industries
Minimal — Limited disruption signal
Minimal — Limited disruption signal
Afghanistan vs State Average
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Political instability + economic stress + declining social trust creates a governance crisis environment. Regulatory uncertainty compounds economic disruption.
Precedent: 2008-2010: Financial crisis + political polarization + institutional trust erosion created conditions for lasting policy instability.
Afghanistan: 3 dimensions converging above thresholds simultaneously.
Ecological stress amplifies economic disruption through insurance costs, infrastructure damage, supply chain disruptions, and forced migration patterns.
Precedent: Hurricane Katrina (2005), Texas winter storm (2021): climate events created multi-year economic disruption in affected regions.
Afghanistan: 2 dimensions converging above thresholds simultaneously.
Social trust erosion + political instability creates conditions for governance dysfunction, contested elections, and regulatory paralysis.
Precedent: 2020-2024: US political polarization + institutional trust decline produced contested elections, regulatory uncertainty, and capital flight from affected jurisdictions.
Afghanistan: 2 dimensions converging above thresholds simultaneously.
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