Meridian

Western Slope / I-70 Corridor (Glenwood Springs)

Future Path

Pick a future path. Every number on this page updates with the impacts and the ranked actions for that path.

Disruption Profile

Baseline + Probable

High — Active disruption underway in key sectors

High — Building pressure in key sectors

Moderate — Building pressure in key sectors

Moderate — Median household income $84K (-9.3% vs state median) -- near the state median.

Moderate — Moderate exposure across select industries

Low — Moderate exposure across select industries

Low — AI Exposure Index: 30/100 -- lower vulnerability to AI-driven workforce disruption.

Low — Limited disruption signal

Minimal — Limited disruption signal

Garfield County vs Colorado Average

Garfield County exceeds Colorado average on 4/9 dimensions. Highest divergence: Social Trust (-30)

Click a dimension label to explore

Garfield Colorado US Avg

Projected impact · 2026

Stakes for Garfield County

Probable cone · 1.00x

With 33K jobs in Garfield County and AI exposure at 30/100, here is what the model projects through 2031 under the probable cone (default 5-year horizon — scrub the timeline to extend).

Model: at-risk = workforce × (AI exposure ÷ 100) × ((year − 2020) ÷ 10, capped 0-1) × cone multiplier. Each STEEPE-point improvement preserves ~1% of at-risk jobs. The same formula runs backwards (retrodiction) and forwards (projection), so scrubbing pre-2026 shows what the model says was already exposed by that year.

See per-dimension breakdown

How 8 actions distribute across 5 dimensions, plus near-term vs medium-term lists.

If Garfield County implements all 8 recommended actions, the model projects these dimensional improvements.

Education Value

52+14 pts

Pre-emptive Reskilling Pipeline: Hospitality front-of-house /Sector-Aligned K-12 + Community College Pipeline /Registered Apprenticeship Expansion: Trade, Transportation & Utilities

AI > AGI > ASI

30+6 pts

Anchor Employer AI Co-Investment Compact /Universal Broadband for AI Economy Participation

Economic Disruption

50+5 pts

Reduce Leisure & Hospitality Concentration Risk

Social Trust

53+4 pts

Pre-Positioned Displaced Worker Rapid Response

Ecological Stress

73+4 pts

Climate Resilience Infrastructure Investment

Near-term (1-3 yr)+28 pts

6 actions within local control

- Reduce Leisure & Hospitality Concentration Risk
- Pre-emptive Reskilling Pipeline: Hospitality front-of-house
- Sector-Aligned K-12 + Community College Pipeline
- Anchor Employer AI Co-Investment Compact
- Registered Apprenticeship Expansion: Trade, Transportation & Utilities
- Pre-Positioned Displaced Worker Rapid Response

Medium-term (3-7 yr)+5 pts

2 actions requiring partnerships or advocacy

- Universal Broadband for AI Economy Participation
- Climate Resilience Infrastructure Investment

Action Plan

Probable path

Top recommendations for Garfield County, ranked by estimated impact. 8 total · +33 pts combined.

Who Can Act

Of 8 recommended actions for Garfield County, 7 are within direct control. Tap a sphere to see the actions and what each one does.

Acting on the 7 local levers alone (+32 STEEPE pts) is the fastest path to shifting the probable→preferred future cone for this county.

Top Employers — Garfield County

The 10 largest employers shaping the local labor market. Tap any row for the public-data profile and AI-exposure assessment.

Economic Development Authority

Garfield County Economic Development

Western Slope Diversification & Workforce Strategy

Website

Target Sectors

Outdoor Recreation & Tourism (hot springs, rafting, adventure parks)Healthcare & Behavioral Health (Valley View regional hub)Energy Transition (methane monitoring, hydrogen pilots, workforce retraining)Workforce Training (Colorado Mountain College energy-trades & nursing programs)

Active Programs

+Colorado Mountain College workforce-development grants
+Colorado Office of Just Transition (coal/gas community support)
+Department of Local Affairs (DOLA) Energy/Mineral Impact Assistance Fund
+Colorado Tourism Office regional marketing partnership

Recent Wins

Valley View Hospital expansion & regional clinic network

$50M+2023

Glenwood Canyon I-70 corridor resilience rebuild (post-Grizzly Creek Fire)

$120M+2022

Supporting detail

Open any section to dig into the underlying data.

Layoff history (WARN)

Federal layoff filings on the timeline

WARN Act Notices (2020-2026)

Notices

Workers

Layoff Rate

of total employment

2025

Workers Affected by Year

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Recent Notices

Source: Colorado CDLE WARN. Federal WARN Act: 60-day notice for mass layoffs (50+ workers) at employers with 100+ employees.

Disruption scenarios

Exponential impact paths driven by the timeline

Exponential Impact Scenarios

Cross-signal alerts

When multiple risk signals converge on this county

Convergence Alerts

highClimate-Economic Nexusstrength 73%

Ecological 73/55Economic 61/50

Ecological stress amplifies economic disruption through insurance costs, infrastructure damage, supply chain disruptions, and forced migration patterns.

Precedent: Hurricane Katrina (2005), Texas winter storm (2021): climate events created multi-year economic disruption in affected regions.

Garfield County: 2 dimensions converging above thresholds simultaneously.

Full economic profile

Demographics, employment, sectors, incentives

EVI: transitionalBASELINENon-Metro (RUCC 5)

Housing & Infrastructure

Median Home Value

$612K

Homeownership

64.8%

Median Rent

$1,780

Broadband Access

86.3%

Avg Commute

28.4 min

Labor Force Part.

68.5%

Severe affordability strain. Aspen / Pitkin housing failure pushes workforce downvalley, compressing Glenwood Springs, Carbondale, and Rifle markets. Median home value materially above Colorado median despite RUCC 5 rural classification. Short-term-rental conversions further constrain long-term inventory.

Employment by Sector

Leisure & Hospitality19.2%

Trade, Transportation & Utilities17.6%

Education & Health Services14.8%

Construction11.5%

Mining, Quarrying & Oil/Gas Extraction6.8%

Population & Talent

Population

62K

Change Since 2020

+1.2%

Median Age

36.4

Slow net in-migration driven primarily by Aspen / Pitkin housing-cost spillover. Workforce moves downvalley to Carbondale, Glenwood Springs, Rifle, and Parachute as upvalley housing becomes unattainable.

Western Slope hinge county with a bifurcated economy. Piceance Basin natural-gas production has plateaued and rig counts are off the 2008-2014 peak; coal mining is essentially extinct. The hospitality and hot-springs tourism stack centered on Glenwood Springs, plus the Aspen / Pitkin downvalley service workforce, provide meaningful resilience. Affordable-housing pressure pushed upvalley from Pitkin is the single largest social strain. Wildfire risk along the I-70 / Glenwood Canyon corridor is a real and intensifying tail risk.

Sources

Census ACS 2024: Garfield County, CO BLS LAUS: Garfield County EIA Colorado State Energy Profile Garfield County Government

Grant matches

Federal funding aligned to county levers

Target industries

Sectors prioritized by the county strategy

Sectors aligned with the county’s diversification strategy and AI impact assessment.

1.Natural Gas Production (Piceance Basin)

AI mixed

Garfield sits over the Piceance Basin, one of the largest US natural-gas reserves. Ovintiv (formerly Encana) and Devon (formerly WPX) operate thousands of wells across Parachute, Rifle, and Battlement Mesa. Production has plateaued and rig counts have fallen from the 2008-2014 peak. Coal mining is essentially extinct in the county. Severance-tax revenue remains material to county fiscal base but is declining.

2.Outdoor Recreation & Hot Springs Tourism

AI tailwind

Glenwood Hot Springs Resort is the anchor (world's largest hot-springs pool). Iron Mountain Hot Springs, Yampah Spa, and Glenwood Caverns Adventure Park round out the in-county tourism stack. I-70 traffic delivers high seasonal volume. Rafting on the Colorado and Roaring Fork rivers, hiking, and mountain biking sustain a year-round outdoor-recreation economy.

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Garfield County