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Globe/United States/Idaho/Madison County

Madison County

Eastern Idaho / Upper Snake River Plain / BYU-Idaho University Anchor, Idaho · 53K people · $1.8B GDP

ReportCompareBoard BriefMeridian
Timeline
2026Present
NOW
EVENT HORIZON
2020202620302035204020452050
Eastern Idaho / Upper Snake River Plain / BYU-Idaho University Anchor

Future Path

Pick a future path. Every number on this page updates with the impacts and the ranked actions for that path.

Disruption Profile

Baseline + Probable

High — Active disruption underway in key sectors

Moderate — Median household income $50K (-28.2% vs state median) -- significantly below state average, limiting consumer spending and tax base.

Moderate — Building pressure in key sectors

Moderate — AI Exposure Index: 30/100 -- lower vulnerability to AI-driven workforce disruption.

Moderate — Moderate exposure across select industries

Moderate — Moderate exposure across select industries

Low — Moderate exposure across select industries

Low — Moderate exposure across select industries

Minimal — Limited disruption signal

Madison County vs Idaho Average

Madison County exceeds Idaho average on 7/9 dimensions. Highest divergence: Social Trust (-19)

Click a dimension label to explore

Madison Idaho US Avg

Projected impact · 2026

Stakes for Madison County

Probable cone · 1.00x

With 17K jobs in Madison County and AI exposure at 30/100, here is what the model projects through 2031 under the probable cone (default 5-year horizon — scrub the timeline to extend).

Model: at-risk = workforce × (AI exposure ÷ 100) × ((year − 2020) ÷ 10, capped 0-1) × cone multiplier. Each STEEPE-point improvement preserves ~1% of at-risk jobs. The same formula runs backwards (retrodiction) and forwards (projection), so scrubbing pre-2026 shows what the model says was already exposed by that year.

See per-dimension breakdown

How 8 actions distribute across 4 dimensions, plus near-term vs medium-term lists.

If Madison County implements all 8 recommended actions, the model projects these dimensional improvements.

Education Value
52+14 pts
Pre-emptive Reskilling Pipeline: Student-facing retail and food service in Rexburg /Sector-Aligned K-12 + Community College Pipeline /Registered Apprenticeship Expansion: Education & Health Services
Social Trust
63+9 pts
Targeted Poverty Reduction in Highest-Need Areas /Pre-Positioned Displaced Worker Rapid Response
Economic Disruption
52+8 pts
Reduce Education & Health Services Concentration Risk
AI > AGI > ASI
48+6 pts
Anchor Employer AI Co-Investment Compact /Universal Broadband for AI Economy Participation
Near-term (1-3 yr)+36 pts

7 actions within local control

  • - Reduce Education & Health Services Concentration Risk
  • - Targeted Poverty Reduction in Highest-Need Areas
  • - Pre-emptive Reskilling Pipeline: Student-facing retail and food service in Rexburg
  • - Sector-Aligned K-12 + Community College Pipeline
  • - Anchor Employer AI Co-Investment Compact
  • - Registered Apprenticeship Expansion: Education & Health Services
  • - Pre-Positioned Displaced Worker Rapid Response
Medium-term (3-7 yr)+1 pts

1 action requiring partnerships or advocacy

  • - Universal Broadband for AI Economy Participation

Action Plan

Probable path

Top recommendations for Madison County, ranked by estimated impact. 8 total · +37 pts combined.

Who Can Act

Of 8 recommended actions for Madison County, 7 are within direct control. Tap a sphere to see the actions and what each one does.

Acting on the 7 local levers alone (+36 STEEPE pts) is the fastest path to shifting the probable→preferred future cone for this county.

Top Employers — Madison County

The 6 largest employers shaping the local labor market. Tap any row for the public-data profile and AI-exposure assessment.

Economic Development Authority

Grow Idaho Falls / Regional Economic Development for Eastern Idaho (REDI)

Eastern Idaho Regional Economic Development Strategy

Website

Target Sectors

Higher Education & Workforce (BYU-Idaho graduate pipeline into regional employers)Agribusiness & Food Processing (upper Snake potato, dairy, and grain operations)Healthcare (Madison Memorial Hospital and the broader eastern Idaho rural network)Remote Knowledge Work (Boise tech and Idaho Falls federal-lab spillover)

Active Programs

  • +Regional Economic Development for Eastern Idaho (REDI) county partnership
  • +BYU-Idaho workforce and internship pipeline programs
  • +Idaho Department of Commerce rural community grants
  • +Upper Snake agricultural extension and precision-ag adoption support

Recent Wins

BYU-Idaho campus and student-housing capital expansion (multi-year)
$200M+2024
Idaho National Laboratory regional economic spillover (Idaho Falls anchor)
2025

Supporting detail

Open any section to dig into the underlying data.

Layoff history (WARN)

Federal layoff filings on the timeline

WARN Act Notices (2020-2026)

Notices

0

Workers

0

Layoff Rate

0%

of total employment

2025

0

Workers Affected by Year

0
2020
0
2021
0
2022
0
2023
0
2024
0
2025
0
2026

Recent Notices

Source: Idaho Department of Labor WARN. Federal WARN Act: 60-day notice for mass layoffs (50+ workers) at employers with 100+ employees.

Disruption scenarios

Exponential impact paths driven by the timeline

Exponential Impact Scenarios

Cross-signal alerts

When multiple risk signals converge on this county

Convergence Alerts

buildingPolitical-Economic Instability96% to trigger
Political 72/55 ✓Economic 63/55 ✓Social 44/50

Approaching convergence threshold. 1 dimension still below trigger level.

Full economic profile

Demographics, employment, sectors, incentives

EVI: stableBASELINENon-Metro (RUCC 4)

Housing & Infrastructure

Median Home Value

$313K

Homeownership

60.4%

Median Rent

$920

Broadband Access

88.6%

Avg Commute

16.2 min

Labor Force Part.

56.8%

Tight student-rental market driven by BYU-Idaho enrollment. Off-campus student housing is the dominant rental product. Owner-occupancy is concentrated in faculty-staff and farm households outside the Rexburg core. Single-family supply has lagged enrollment growth, pushing median values above what a rural Idaho county would otherwise see.

Employment by Sector

Education & Health Services32.5%
Trade, Transportation & Utilities15.8%
Leisure & Hospitality11.2%
Construction9.4%
Agriculture (potatoes, dairy, grains)6.1%

Population & Talent

Population

53K

Change Since 2020

+3.1%

Median Age

23.5

Net inflow driven by BYU-Idaho enrollment growth and exceptionally high natural increase from the LDS-majority population. Outmigration of graduating students is largely offset by incoming first-year cohorts and faculty-staff household formation. Modest secondary inflow of remote workers tied to Boise tech and Idaho Falls federal-lab employers.

Single-anchor county economy dominated by Brigham Young University-Idaho (~36,000 students on a population base of ~53,000). The LDS-affiliated university provides exceptional economic stability through tuition-funded operations, a steady construction pipeline for campus and student housing, and a faculty-staff household base unusual for a rural Idaho county. Upper Snake River Plain agriculture (potatoes, dairy, wheat, barley) layers on top, with consolidation favoring larger and more capital-intensive operations. Indirect spillover from Boise tech and the Idaho National Laboratory in Idaho Falls reaches Madison County through remote workers and returning BYU-Idaho alumni rather than a local cluster. The LDS-majority population gives the county very high family-formation rates and the youngest median age of any US county in most years.

Sources

Census QuickFacts: Madison County, IDBLS Idaho Employment SummaryMadison County, Idaho (government)Brigham Young University-Idaho

Grant matches

Federal funding aligned to county levers

Target industries

Sectors prioritized by the county strategy

Sectors aligned with the county’s diversification strategy and AI impact assessment.

1.Higher Education (BYU-Idaho, dominant anchor)

AI tailwind

Brigham Young University-Idaho is the dominant economic and demographic force in Madison County. Owned and operated by The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, it enrolls roughly 36,000 students between on-campus and online programs, a scale unusual for a rural-county host. The university anchors faculty and staff households, a steady construction pipeline for campus and student housing, and an outsized student-driven retail and service economy in Rexburg. Its mission-driven, low-tuition model is genuinely countercyclical to the broader small-college enrollment cliff.

2.Agriculture (potatoes, dairy, wheat, barley)

AI mixed

Madison County is part of the upper Snake River Plain, one of the country's most productive potato regions, with a substantial dairy and small-grains base layered on top. Production is increasingly capital-intensive and consolidating into larger operations, with precision irrigation, yield modeling, and dairy automation gradually displacing routine farm labor while raising returns to operator skill and capital.

Back to Idaho

County data: Census ACS, BLS, BEA. Disruption Profile scores 0-100 (higher = more disruption). Timeline adjusts projections.

3.Healthcare (Madison Memorial Hospital + regional clinics)

AI tailwind

Madison Memorial Hospital is the county's primary acute-care provider, serving Madison County and a broader rural catchment in eastern Idaho. The hospital handles a young, family-heavy patient mix (very high birth rate from the LDS-majority population) plus an aging rural agricultural population. Telemedicine and AI-triage tools have outsized leverage in this rural-coverage context.

4.Retail & Service (student-driven Rexburg)

AI headwind

Rexburg's downtown and commuter belt run on student demand: food service, casual retail, off-campus housing services, and a thick layer of small consumer businesses tied to the BYU-Idaho academic calendar. These categories are among the most directly exposed to point-of-sale automation, ordering kiosks, and AI-driven staffing optimization.

5.Remote Tech / Knowledge Work (Boise + INL spillover)

AI tailwind

Madison County captures meaningful indirect spillover from Idaho's two main technology poles: the Boise tech corridor (Micron, HP, supporting ecosystem) and Idaho National Laboratory in Idaho Falls. The spillover is mostly through remote workers, returning BYU-I alumni, and small professional-service firms rather than a local cluster, but it is a real and growing slice of household income.

Agricultural economy

Farm-sector dependence and AI exposure

Best-case opportunities

What this county wins in the preferred future

Sources

Government, academic, and live data feeds

Census QuickFacts: Madison County, IDBLS Idaho Employment SummaryMadison County, Idaho (government)Brigham Young University-IdahoMadison Memorial Hospital