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Williams County

Bakken Shale (NW North Dakota), North Dakota · 41K people · $4.5B GDP

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Timeline
2026Present
NOW
EVENT HORIZON
2020202620302035204020452050
Bakken Shale (NW North Dakota)

Future Path

Pick a future path. Every number on this page updates with the impacts and the ranked actions for that path.

Disruption Profile

Baseline + Probable

Extreme — Median household income $88K (+19.8% vs state median) -- well above state average, providing economic cushion.

High — Building pressure in key sectors

High — Building pressure in key sectors

Moderate — Building pressure in key sectors

Moderate — Building pressure in key sectors

Moderate — Moderate exposure across select industries

Low — Moderate exposure across select industries

Minimal — Limited disruption signal

Minimal — AI Exposure Index: 26/100 -- lower vulnerability to AI-driven workforce disruption.

Williams County vs North Dakota Average

Williams County exceeds North Dakota average on 7/9 dimensions. Highest divergence: Social Trust (-32)

Click a dimension label to explore

Williams North Dakota US Avg

Projected impact · 2026

Stakes for Williams County

Probable cone · 1.00x

With 25K jobs in Williams County and AI exposure at 26/100, here is what the model projects through 2031 under the probable cone (default 5-year horizon — scrub the timeline to extend).

Model: at-risk = workforce × (AI exposure ÷ 100) × ((year − 2020) ÷ 10, capped 0-1) × cone multiplier. Each STEEPE-point improvement preserves ~1% of at-risk jobs. The same formula runs backwards (retrodiction) and forwards (projection), so scrubbing pre-2026 shows what the model says was already exposed by that year.

See per-dimension breakdown

How 8 actions distribute across 5 dimensions, plus near-term vs medium-term lists.

If Williams County implements all 8 recommended actions, the model projects these dimensional improvements.

Education Value
52+15 pts
Close the Skills Gap with AI-Ready Credentials /Sector-Aligned K-12 + Community College Pipeline /Registered Apprenticeship Expansion: Mining, Quarrying & Oil/Gas Extraction
Economic Disruption
77+8 pts
Reduce Mining, Quarrying & Oil/Gas Extraction Concentration Risk
AI > AGI > ASI
6+6 pts
Anchor Employer AI Co-Investment Compact /Universal Broadband for AI Economy Participation
Social Trust
58+4 pts
Pre-Positioned Displaced Worker Rapid Response
Ecological Stress
66+4 pts
Climate Resilience Infrastructure Investment
Near-term (1-3 yr)+32 pts

6 actions within local control

  • - Reduce Mining, Quarrying & Oil/Gas Extraction Concentration Risk
  • - Close the Skills Gap with AI-Ready Credentials
  • - Sector-Aligned K-12 + Community College Pipeline
  • - Anchor Employer AI Co-Investment Compact
  • - Registered Apprenticeship Expansion: Mining, Quarrying & Oil/Gas Extraction
  • - Pre-Positioned Displaced Worker Rapid Response
Medium-term (3-7 yr)+5 pts

2 actions requiring partnerships or advocacy

  • - Universal Broadband for AI Economy Participation
  • - Climate Resilience Infrastructure Investment

Action Plan

Probable path

Top recommendations for Williams County, ranked by estimated impact. 8 total · +37 pts combined.

Who Can Act

Of 8 recommended actions for Williams County, 7 are within direct control. Tap a sphere to see the actions and what each one does.

Acting on the 7 local levers alone (+36 STEEPE pts) is the fastest path to shifting the probable→preferred future cone for this county.

Top Employers — Williams County

The 10 largest employers shaping the local labor market. Tap any row for the public-data profile and AI-exposure assessment.

Combined headcount across profiled employers: 48K globally · 9 not yet profiled

Economic Development Authority

Williston Economic Development

Bakken Region Diversification Strategy

Website

Target Sectors

Energy Transition (CCUS, low-carbon hydrogen, flare-gas utilization)Advanced Manufacturing (oilfield fabrication, modular equipment)Healthcare & Behavioral HealthWorkforce Training (Williston State College petroleum-tech and trades programs)

Active Programs

  • +ND Department of Commerce workforce and incentive programs
  • +TrainND Northwest workforce training pipeline
  • +Bakken Restoration Initiative (infrastructure and water management)
  • +ND Industrial Commission Oil & Gas Research Program

Recent Wins

Williston Basin International Airport (XWA) replacement facility
$240M+2019
Bakken flare-gas utilization pilots (multiple operators)
approx2023

Supporting detail

Open any section to dig into the underlying data.

Layoff history (WARN)

Federal layoff filings on the timeline

WARN Act Notices (2020-2026)

Notices

0

Workers

0

Layoff Rate

0%

of total employment

2025

0

Workers Affected by Year

0
2020
0
2021
0
2022
0
2023
0
2024
0
2025
0
2026

Recent Notices

Source: North Dakota Job Service WARN. Federal WARN Act: 60-day notice for mass layoffs (50+ workers) at employers with 100+ employees.

Disruption scenarios

Exponential impact paths driven by the timeline

Exponential Impact Scenarios

Cross-signal alerts

When multiple risk signals converge on this county

Convergence Alerts

highClimate-Economic Nexusstrength 78%
Ecological 66/55Economic 88/50

Ecological stress amplifies economic disruption through insurance costs, infrastructure damage, supply chain disruptions, and forced migration patterns.

Precedent: Hurricane Katrina (2005), Texas winter storm (2021): climate events created multi-year economic disruption in affected regions.

Williams County: 2 dimensions converging above thresholds simultaneously.

Full economic profile

Demographics, employment, sectors, incentives

EVI: transitionalBASELINENon-Metro (RUCC 5)

Housing & Infrastructure

Median Home Value

$269K

Homeownership

64.8%

Median Rent

$1,090

Broadband Access

87.4%

Avg Commute

17.9 min

Labor Force Part.

72.1%

Volatile housing market tracking the Bakken oil cycle. Rents spiked dramatically during the 2010-2014 boom (briefly the most expensive small-city rents in the US), then collapsed post-2014. Inventory built for peak-boom population still overhangs the market.

Employment by Sector

Mining, Quarrying & Oil/Gas Extraction24.8%
Trade, Transportation & Utilities18.4%
Construction10.6%
Education & Health Services10.1%
Leisure & Hospitality8.7%

Population & Talent

Population

41K

Change Since 2020

+2.4%

Median Age

31.5

Heavy boom-cycle in-migration 2008-2014, sharp post-crash outflow, then stabilization. Continues to swing with rig-count and crude prices. Younger median age than ND overall reflects oilfield labor force.

Williams County is the Bakken Shale boom-bust archetype. Population roughly tripled between 2008 and 2014 before the oil-price crash triggered a wave of departures. Basin output has stabilized around 1.1M bbl/day, supporting strong severance-tax revenue and per-capita incomes well above the state median, but the labor base remains transient and infrastructure built for peak-boom population is partially under-utilized. Carbon-capture and low-carbon hydrogen pilots tied to existing oil and gas infrastructure are the most concrete diversification bets.

Sources

Census ACS 2024: Williams County, NDBLS LAUS: Williams CountyEIA North Dakota State Energy ProfileWilliston Economic Development

Grant matches

Federal funding aligned to county levers

Target industries

Sectors prioritized by the county strategy

Sectors aligned with the county’s diversification strategy and AI impact assessment.

1.Bakken Oil & Gas Production

AI mixed

Williams County sits over the heart of the Bakken/Three Forks tight-oil play. North Dakota briefly became the #2 US oil-producing state during the 2008-2014 boom; basin output has stabilized around 1.1M bbl/day after the 2014 price crash. Continental Resources, Hess, ConocoPhillips, and XTO are the largest operators. Associated gas production and flaring remain politically and environmentally contested.

2.Energy Services & Frac-Sand Logistics

AI mixed

Halliburton, SLB, and dozens of regional firms run completions, workovers, and water management across the basin. Trucking and rail (BNSF) move frac-sand in and crude out. AI-driven dispatch, predictive maintenance, and autonomous haul trucks are the largest near-term productivity (and headcount) levers.

3.Agriculture (Spring Wheat, Canola, Cattle)

Back to North Dakota

County data: Census ACS, BLS, BEA. Disruption Profile scores 0-100 (higher = more disruption). Timeline adjusts projections.

AI tailwind

Outside the oil patch, Williams County is spring-wheat, canola, and cattle country. Acreage is large, margins are thin, and weather volatility on the northern Plains is rising. Precision agriculture, satellite yield modeling, and autonomous equipment have outsized leverage at this scale.

4.Healthcare (regional medical hub for NW North Dakota)

AI tailwind

CHI St. Alexius Health Williston is the only full-service hospital for a wide swath of NW North Dakota and eastern Montana. Serves oilfield injury caseload, an aging permanent population, and a transient workforce. Telemedicine and AI triage have outsized impact in this isolation context.

5.Workforce Training & Energy Transition

AI tailwind

Williston State College (community college, part of the North Dakota University System) anchors local workforce training for petroleum technology, nursing, and trades. State and federal energy-transition dollars are starting to flow into carbon capture and low-carbon hydrogen pilots tied to existing oil and gas infrastructure.

Best-case opportunities

What this county wins in the preferred future

Sources

Government, academic, and live data feeds

Census QuickFacts: Williams County, NDBLS: North Dakota Employment SummaryEIA North Dakota State Energy ProfileND Department of Mineral Resources, Oil & Gas DivisionWilliston Economic DevelopmentState of North Dakota