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Globe/United States/Ohio/Wayne County

Wayne County

North-Central Ohio / Holmes-Wayne Amish Belt / Akron-Canton Spillover, Ohio · 117K people · $5.0B GDP

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Timeline
2026Present
NOW
EVENT HORIZON
2020202620302035204020452050
North-Central Ohio / Holmes-Wayne Amish Belt / Akron-Canton Spillover

Future Path

Pick a future path. Every number on this page updates with the impacts and the ranked actions for that path.

Disruption Profile

Baseline + Probable

High — Active disruption underway in key sectors

High — Median household income $65K (-3.8% vs state median) -- near the state median.

High — AI Exposure Index: 32/100 -- lower vulnerability to AI-driven workforce disruption.

Moderate — Building pressure in key sectors

Moderate — Building pressure in key sectors

Moderate — Building pressure in key sectors

Moderate — Moderate exposure across select industries

Low — Limited disruption signal

Minimal — Limited disruption signal

Wayne County vs Ohio Average

Wayne County exceeds Ohio average on 7/9 dimensions. Highest divergence: Social Trust (-23)

Click a dimension label to explore

Wayne Ohio US Avg

Projected impact · 2026

Stakes for Wayne County

Probable cone · 1.00x

With 58K jobs in Wayne County and AI exposure at 32/100, here is what the model projects through 2031 under the probable cone (default 5-year horizon — scrub the timeline to extend).

Model: at-risk = workforce × (AI exposure ÷ 100) × ((year − 2020) ÷ 10, capped 0-1) × cone multiplier. Each STEEPE-point improvement preserves ~1% of at-risk jobs. The same formula runs backwards (retrodiction) and forwards (projection), so scrubbing pre-2026 shows what the model says was already exposed by that year.

See per-dimension breakdown

How 10 actions distribute across 4 dimensions, plus near-term vs medium-term lists.

If Wayne County implements all 10 recommended actions, the model projects these dimensional improvements.

Education Value
55+20 pts
Close the Skills Gap with AI-Ready Credentials /Pre-emptive Reskilling Pipeline: Food-manufacturing line work /Sector-Aligned K-12 + Community College Pipeline /Registered Apprenticeship Expansion: Manufacturing (food + precision components)
Economic Disruption
65+16 pts
Reduce Manufacturing (food + precision components) Concentration Risk /EV Battery Supply Chain Anchor
AI > AGI > ASI
56+14 pts
Anchor Employer AI Co-Investment Compact /Universal Broadband for AI Economy Participation /Healthcare AI District at Detroit Medical Center
Social Trust
54+4 pts
Pre-Positioned Displaced Worker Rapid Response
Near-term (1-3 yr)+52 pts

9 actions within local control

  • - Reduce Manufacturing (food + precision components) Concentration Risk
  • - Close the Skills Gap with AI-Ready Credentials
  • - Pre-emptive Reskilling Pipeline: Food-manufacturing line work
  • - Sector-Aligned K-12 + Community College Pipeline
  • - Anchor Employer AI Co-Investment Compact
  • - Registered Apprenticeship Expansion: Manufacturing (food + precision components)
  • - Pre-Positioned Displaced Worker Rapid Response
  • - EV Battery Supply Chain Anchor
  • - Healthcare AI District at Detroit Medical Center
Medium-term (3-7 yr)+2 pts

1 action requiring partnerships or advocacy

  • - Universal Broadband for AI Economy Participation

Action Plan

Probable path

Top recommendations for Wayne County, ranked by estimated impact. 10 total · +54 pts combined.

Who Can Act

Of 10 recommended actions for Wayne County, 9 are within direct control. Tap a sphere to see the actions and what each one does.

Acting on the 9 local levers alone (+52 STEEPE pts) is the fastest path to shifting the probable→preferred future cone for this county.

Top Employers — Wayne County

The 10 largest employers shaping the local labor market. Tap any row for the public-data profile and AI-exposure assessment.

Economic Development Authority

Wayne Economic Development Council

Wayne County Economic Diversification & Workforce Strategy

Website

Target Sectors

Food & Beverage Manufacturing (Smucker, Frito-Lay, supplier ecosystem)Agricultural Research & Bioscience (OARDC commercialization spinouts)Advanced Manufacturing (Schaeffler / LuK precision drivetrain, Will-Burt defense + telecom)Higher Education & Workforce (College of Wooster, Wayne College, OARDC graduate programs)

Active Programs

  • +JobsOhio rural-county economic development partnership
  • +Ohio State CFAES + OARDC ag-tech commercialization initiatives
  • +Wayne County Workforce Development (Smucker + Schaeffler training pipelines)
  • +Ohio Department of Development community grant programs

Recent Wins

J.M. Smucker Hostess Brands acquisition (Orrville HQ portfolio expansion)
$5.6B2023
OARDC research facility modernization (Ohio State CFAES capital plan)
$50M+2024

Supporting detail

Open any section to dig into the underlying data.

Layoff history (WARN)

Federal layoff filings on the timeline

WARN Act Notices (2020-2026)

Notices

0

Workers

0

Layoff Rate

0%

of total employment

2025

0

Workers Affected by Year

0
2020
0
2021
0
2022
0
2023
0
2024
0
2025
0
2026

Recent Notices

Source: Ohio ODJFS WARN. Federal WARN Act: 60-day notice for mass layoffs (50+ workers) at employers with 100+ employees.

Disruption scenarios

Exponential impact paths driven by the timeline

Exponential Impact Scenarios

Cross-signal alerts

When multiple risk signals converge on this county

Convergence Alerts

buildingAI-Economic Squeeze98% to trigger
Economic 76/60 ✓AI 56/60 Education 57/50 ✓

Approaching convergence threshold. 1 dimension still below trigger level.

buildingClimate-Economic Nexus94% to trigger
Ecological 48/55 Economic 76/50 ✓

Approaching convergence threshold. 1 dimension still below trigger level.

Full economic profile

Demographics, employment, sectors, incentives

EVI: stableBASELINENon-Metro (RUCC 4)

Housing & Infrastructure

Median Home Value

$198K

Homeownership

73.1%

Median Rent

$850

Broadband Access

84.2%

Avg Commute

21.4 min

Labor Force Part.

63.5%

Affordable by Ohio metro standards. Strong owner-occupancy reflects Amish + farm-household patterns. Wooster city has a small but tight rental market driven by College of Wooster student-and-faculty housing demand. Orrville housing tracks Smucker HQ employment.

Employment by Sector

Manufacturing (food + precision components)21%
Education & Health Services18.5%
Trade, Transportation & Utilities16.2%
Agriculture (dairy + livestock + crops)7.8%
Leisure & Hospitality7.2%

Population & Talent

Population

117K

Change Since 2020

+0.6%

Median Age

39.4

Roughly stable: outmigration of younger non-Amish residents to Columbus / Cleveland is offset by Amish natural increase (high birth rate) and modest Akron-Canton commuter inflows. Smucker HQ and the College of Wooster anchor a small but steady inflow of professional households.

Unusually diversified rural-industrial economy with four legs: food manufacturing (J.M. Smucker HQ in Orrville, Frito-Lay plant in Wooster), agricultural research (OARDC, the largest US ag research facility east of the Mississippi), higher education (The College of Wooster + Wayne College), and a deep dairy + Amish artisanal economy. Smucker is the durable corporate anchor that has carried the county through the broader tire-and-rubber manufacturing erosion of the late 20th century. The College of Wooster + OARDC give Wayne County a researcher-and-faculty professional class that is rare among non-metro Midwest counties. Cleveland-Akron-Canton metro spillover provides a commuter belt on the northern edge.

Sources

Census QuickFacts: Wayne County, OHBLS Ohio Employment SummaryWayne County, Ohio (government)OARDC / Ohio State CFAES

Grant matches

Federal funding aligned to county levers

Target industries

Sectors prioritized by the county strategy

Sectors aligned with the county’s diversification strategy and AI impact assessment.

1.Agricultural Research & Development (OARDC / Ohio State Extension)

AI tailwind

The Ohio Agricultural Research and Development Center in Wooster is the largest agricultural research facility in the US east of the Mississippi -- the principal research arm of Ohio State's College of Food, Agricultural, and Environmental Sciences. Programs span plant pathology, dairy science, food safety, ag engineering, and precision-ag robotics. OARDC's presence makes Wayne County one of the few rural US counties with a substantial PhD researcher base and federal-grant flow tied to USDA and NIFA priorities.

2.Food Manufacturing (J.M. Smucker HQ + Frito-Lay)

AI mixed

J.M. Smucker is headquartered in Orrville with roots dating to 1897. Brand portfolio includes Smucker's, Jif, Folgers, Dunkin' at-home, Milk-Bone, Meow Mix, and Hostess (post-2023 acquisition). Local employment ~1,500 plus nationally distributed roles. Frito-Lay operates a major Wooster plant producing snack products for the Midwest. Together they make Wayne County one of Ohio's densest food-CPG manufacturing pockets.

Back to Ohio

County data: Census ACS, BLS, BEA. Disruption Profile scores 0-100 (higher = more disruption). Timeline adjusts projections.

3.Higher Education (The College of Wooster + Wayne College)

AI tailwind

The College of Wooster is a top-tier private liberal-arts college (~2,000 students) known nationally for its mentored undergraduate research model (Independent Study senior thesis required of every graduate). Wayne College in Orrville is the University of Akron's branch campus serving the local commuter and Amish-adjacent population. Together they anchor an unusually strong higher-ed presence for a non-metro county.

4.Dairy + Amish Economy (livestock, artisanal trades, agritourism)

AI mixed

Wayne County is part of the Holmes-Wayne-Tuscarawas tricounty -- the largest Amish settlement in the world, with deep dairy and livestock production, artisanal furniture, cheese, baked goods, and construction trades. The Amish economy is unusually resilient to digital disruption (intentional technology limits) but is increasingly mediated by English-run logistics, marketing, and e-commerce intermediaries that capture the AI-software margin.

5.Healthcare (Wooster Community Hospital)

AI tailwind

Wooster Community Hospital is a city-owned independent hospital (rare governance structure) serving Wayne County and the surrounding Amish tricounty. Behavioral-health caseload from rural opioid pressure, agricultural injuries, and a growing aging population. Telemedicine and AI-triage tools have outsized impact in this rural-and-Amish coverage context.

Agricultural economy

Farm-sector dependence and AI exposure

Agricultural Economy

USDA Census of Agriculture 2022

RUCC 1: Metro

Farms

309

Farmland

10K ac

Market Value

$40.8M

Net Farm Income

$2.4M

Top Commodities by Sales

Nursery, greenhouse, floriculture$31.6M#7 state#124 US
Vegetables & melons$5.2M#27 state
Grains & oilseeds$1.5M
Horses & ponies$991K#6 state
Fruits & berries$451K

Sales Split

Crops 95%Livestock 5%

Top Crops by Acreage

Soybeans2K ac
Vegetables1K ac
Sod855 ac
Corn for grain854 ac

Livestock Inventory

Horses & ponies458
Government payments received: $252K
Average farm size: 34 acres

Best-case opportunities

What this county wins in the preferred future

Sources

Government, academic, and live data feeds

Census QuickFacts: Wayne County, OHBLS Ohio Employment SummaryWayne County, Ohio (government)The J.M. Smucker CompanyOARDC -- Ohio Agricultural Research and Development CenterThe College of WoosterWooster Community Hospital