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Globe/United States/Oregon/Douglas County

Douglas County

Umpqua Basin (SW Oregon), Oregon · 111K people · $4.5B GDP

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Timeline
2026Present
NOW
EVENT HORIZON
2020202620302035204020452050
Umpqua Basin (SW Oregon)

Future Path

Pick a future path. Every number on this page updates with the impacts and the ranked actions for that path.

Disruption Profile

Baseline + Probable

High — Active disruption underway in key sectors

High — Building pressure in key sectors

Moderate — Building pressure in key sectors

Moderate — Median household income $59K (-23% vs state median) -- significantly below state average, limiting consumer spending and tax base.

Moderate — Moderate exposure across select industries

Low — Moderate exposure across select industries

Low — AI Exposure Index: 28/100 -- lower vulnerability to AI-driven workforce disruption.

Low — Moderate exposure across select industries

Minimal — Limited disruption signal

Douglas County vs Oregon Average

Douglas County exceeds Oregon average on 2/9 dimensions. Highest divergence: AI > AGI > ASI (-40)

Click a dimension label to explore

Douglas Oregon US Avg

Projected impact · 2026

Stakes for Douglas County

Probable cone · 1.00x

With 39K jobs in Douglas County and AI exposure at 28/100, here is what the model projects through 2031 under the probable cone (default 5-year horizon — scrub the timeline to extend).

Model: at-risk = workforce × (AI exposure ÷ 100) × ((year − 2020) ÷ 10, capped 0-1) × cone multiplier. Each STEEPE-point improvement preserves ~1% of at-risk jobs. The same formula runs backwards (retrodiction) and forwards (projection), so scrubbing pre-2026 shows what the model says was already exposed by that year.

See per-dimension breakdown

How 8 actions distribute across 5 dimensions, plus near-term vs medium-term lists.

If Douglas County implements all 8 recommended actions, the model projects these dimensional improvements.

Education Value
46+15 pts
Close the Skills Gap with AI-Ready Credentials /Sector-Aligned K-12 + Community College Pipeline /Registered Apprenticeship Expansion: Trade, Transportation & Utilities
AI > AGI > ASI
27+7 pts
Anchor Employer AI Co-Investment Compact /Universal Broadband for AI Economy Participation
Economic Disruption
42+5 pts
Reduce Trade, Transportation & Utilities Concentration Risk
Social Trust
57+4 pts
Pre-Positioned Displaced Worker Rapid Response
Ecological Stress
90+4 pts
Climate Resilience Infrastructure Investment
Near-term (1-3 yr)+29 pts

6 actions within local control

  • - Close the Skills Gap with AI-Ready Credentials
  • - Reduce Trade, Transportation & Utilities Concentration Risk
  • - Sector-Aligned K-12 + Community College Pipeline
  • - Anchor Employer AI Co-Investment Compact
  • - Registered Apprenticeship Expansion: Trade, Transportation & Utilities
  • - Pre-Positioned Displaced Worker Rapid Response
Medium-term (3-7 yr)+6 pts

2 actions requiring partnerships or advocacy

  • - Universal Broadband for AI Economy Participation
  • - Climate Resilience Infrastructure Investment

Action Plan

Probable path

Top recommendations for Douglas County, ranked by estimated impact. 8 total · +35 pts combined.

Who Can Act

Of 8 recommended actions for Douglas County, 7 are within direct control. Tap a sphere to see the actions and what each one does.

Acting on the 7 local levers alone (+33 STEEPE pts) is the fastest path to shifting the probable→preferred future cone for this county.

Top Employers — Douglas County

The 8 largest employers shaping the local labor market. Tap any row for the public-data profile and AI-exposure assessment.

Economic Development Authority

Douglas County (county economic development function) + partner organizations

Umpqua Basin economic diversification

Website

Target Sectors

Wood Products and Engineered Wood (Roseburg Forest Products anchor)Healthcare (Mercy Medical Center, VA Roseburg)Tourism (Umpqua Valley AVA, Umpqua River, Crater Lake gateway)Forest Carbon and Biomass EnergyTribal Enterprise (Cow Creek Band, Seven Feathers Casino Resort)

Active Programs

  • +Oregon Forest Resources Institute and Oregon Department of Forestry wildfire-resilience programs
  • +USDA Rural Development grants (broadband, water/wastewater, business loans)
  • +Cow Creek Band economic-development initiatives (hospitality, real estate, government services)

Recent Wins

Roseburg Forest Products continued capital investment in engineered-wood facilities
2024
Seven Feathers Casino Resort expansion (Cow Creek Band)
2023

Supporting detail

Open any section to dig into the underlying data.

Layoff history (WARN)

Federal layoff filings on the timeline

WARN Act Notices (2020-2026)

Notices

0

Workers

0

Layoff Rate

0%

of total employment

2025

0

Workers Affected by Year

0
2020
0
2021
0
2022
0
2023
0
2024
0
2025
0
2026

Recent Notices

Source: Oregon WorkSource / OED WARN. Federal WARN Act: 60-day notice for mass layoffs (50+ workers) at employers with 100+ employees.

Disruption scenarios

Exponential impact paths driven by the timeline

Exponential Impact Scenarios

Cross-signal alerts

When multiple risk signals converge on this county

Convergence Alerts

highClimate-Economic Nexusstrength 57%
Ecological 90/55Economic 53/50

Ecological stress amplifies economic disruption through insurance costs, infrastructure damage, supply chain disruptions, and forced migration patterns.

Precedent: Hurricane Katrina (2005), Texas winter storm (2021): climate events created multi-year economic disruption in affected regions.

Douglas County: 2 dimensions converging above thresholds simultaneously.

Full economic profile

Demographics, employment, sectors, incentives

EVI: transitionalBASELINENon-Metro (RUCC 4)

Housing & Infrastructure

Median Home Value

$295K

Homeownership

69.5%

Median Rent

$1,050

Broadband Access

82.0%

Avg Commute

21.5 min

Labor Force Part.

53.0%

Affordable relative to coastal Oregon and Portland metro, but wildfire-risk insurance availability is tightening. Older housing stock; limited new construction.

Employment by Sector

Trade, Transportation & Utilities18.5%
Education & Health Services17.2%
Manufacturing (wood products)13.5%
Leisure & Hospitality11%
Government14.5%

Population & Talent

Population

111K

Change Since 2020

+0.2%

Median Age

47.5

Net migration roughly flat. Modest in-migration of retirees offsetting working-age out-migration. Wildfire seasons have begun to deter some retiree inflows.

Federal-forest-dependent timber economy in slow recovery from the 1990s spotted-owl collapse. Roseburg Forest Products' pivot toward engineered-wood-products (particleboard, MDF, plywood) stabilized employment but at lower headcount per board-foot than the legacy mill era. Wildfire intensification (Archie Creek 2020 burned ~130K acres in-county) is now the binding constraint on both timber and tourism. Population has been roughly flat since 2010 with rising median age. Carbon-offset markets, biomass energy, and tribal-enterprise diversification represent the most concrete forward bets.

Sources

Census QuickFacts: Douglas County, ORBLS: Oregon Employment SummaryDouglas County, OregonRoseburg Forest ProductsCow Creek Band of Umpqua Tribe of Indians

Grant matches

Federal funding aligned to county levers

Target industries

Sectors prioritized by the county strategy

Sectors aligned with the county’s diversification strategy and AI impact assessment.

1.Wood Products (Roseburg Forest Products)

AI mixed

Roseburg Forest Products, headquartered in Springfield with major Douglas County operations, is the largest private employer in southern Oregon and the dominant wood-products company in the region. Particleboard, MDF, engineered wood, plywood, and dimensional lumber. The spotted-owl listing era (1990s) decimated the timber economy; partial recovery via engineered-wood-products manufacturing. AI-driven vision grading and mill automation are the largest near-term productivity (and headcount) levers.

2.Healthcare (Mercy Medical Center)

AI tailwind

Mercy Medical Center (CommonSpirit Health) is the regional hospital serving Douglas County and surrounding rural areas. Serves an aging population, timber-injury caseload, and opioid-crisis burden. Telemedicine and AI triage have outsized impact given the rural isolation. VA Roseburg Healthcare System adds federal employment.

Back to Oregon

County data: Census ACS, BLS, BEA. Disruption Profile scores 0-100 (higher = more disruption). Timeline adjusts projections.

3.Tourism & Wine (Umpqua Valley AVA)

AI mixed

Umpqua Valley AVA wineries and Umpqua River recreation (fishing, rafting, scenic drives) anchor a slow-growth tourism economy. North Umpqua salmon and steelhead runs are a draw and a habitat concern. Diamond Lake and Crater Lake National Park gateway access via OR-138.

4.Carbon Offsets & Biomass Energy

AI tailwind

Most of Douglas County is federal BLM/USFS land plus large private industrial timber holdings. Forest-carbon offset projects (CARB-compliance and voluntary markets) and biomass energy from logging slash represent emerging revenue streams. Carbon MRV (measurement, reporting, verification) is increasingly AI-driven. Wildfire risk is the binding constraint on offset durability.

5.Tribal Enterprise (Cow Creek Band of Umpqua)

AI mixed

The Cow Creek Band of Umpqua Tribe of Indians operates Seven Feathers Casino Resort in Canyonville plus diversified enterprises (hospitality, real estate, government services). One of the more economically active tribal governments in Oregon. Salmon-habitat restoration and cultural-resource priorities intersect with federal-forest policy.

Best-case opportunities

What this county wins in the preferred future

Sources

Government, academic, and live data feeds

Census QuickFacts: Douglas County, ORBLS: Oregon Employment SummaryDouglas County, OregonRoseburg Forest ProductsCow Creek Band of Umpqua Tribe of IndiansUmpqua Community College