Meridian

South County / URI / Narragansett Coast

Future Path

Pick a future path. Every number on this page updates with the impacts and the ranked actions for that path.

Disruption Profile

Baseline + Probable

High — Active disruption underway in key sectors

High — Median household income $92K (+8.1% vs state median) -- near the state median.

Moderate — Building pressure in key sectors

Moderate — AI Exposure Index: 34/100 -- lower vulnerability to AI-driven workforce disruption.

Moderate — Moderate exposure across select industries

Low — Moderate exposure across select industries

Low — Limited disruption signal

Minimal — Limited disruption signal

Washington County vs Rhode Island Average

Washington County exceeds Rhode Island average on 7/9 dimensions. Highest divergence: Social Trust (-23)

Click a dimension label to explore

Washington Rhode Island US Avg

Projected impact · 2026

Stakes for Washington County

Probable cone · 1.00x

With 62K jobs in Washington County and AI exposure at 34/100, here is what the model projects through 2031 under the probable cone (default 5-year horizon — scrub the timeline to extend).

Model: at-risk = workforce × (AI exposure ÷ 100) × ((year − 2020) ÷ 10, capped 0-1) × cone multiplier. Each STEEPE-point improvement preserves ~1% of at-risk jobs. The same formula runs backwards (retrodiction) and forwards (projection), so scrubbing pre-2026 shows what the model says was already exposed by that year.

See per-dimension breakdown

How 8 actions distribute across 5 dimensions, plus near-term vs medium-term lists.

If Washington County implements all 8 recommended actions, the model projects these dimensional improvements.

Education Value

66+14 pts

Pre-emptive Reskilling Pipeline: Seasonal retail and food service in Narragansett, Westerly, Block Island /Sector-Aligned K-12 + Community College Pipeline /Registered Apprenticeship Expansion: Education & Health Services (URI + South County Hospital)

AI > AGI > ASI

48+9 pts

Anchor Employer AI Co-Investment Compact /Leverage Broadband Advantage for AI Sector Growth

Economic Disruption

58+8 pts

Reduce Education & Health Services (URI + South County Hospital) Concentration Risk

Social Trust

48+4 pts

Pre-Positioned Displaced Worker Rapid Response

Ecological Stress

72+4 pts

Climate Resilience Infrastructure Investment

Near-term (1-3 yr)+35 pts

7 actions within local control

- Reduce Education & Health Services (URI + South County Hospital) Concentration Risk
- Pre-emptive Reskilling Pipeline: Seasonal retail and food service in Narragansett, Westerly, Block Island
- Sector-Aligned K-12 + Community College Pipeline
- Anchor Employer AI Co-Investment Compact
- Leverage Broadband Advantage for AI Sector Growth
- Registered Apprenticeship Expansion: Education & Health Services (URI + South County Hospital)
- Pre-Positioned Displaced Worker Rapid Response

Medium-term (3-7 yr)+4 pts

1 action requiring partnerships or advocacy

- Climate Resilience Infrastructure Investment

Action Plan

Probable path

Top recommendations for Washington County, ranked by estimated impact. 8 total · +39 pts combined.

Who Can Act

Of 8 recommended actions for Washington County, 8 are within direct control. Tap a sphere to see the actions and what each one does.

Acting on the 8 local levers alone (+39 STEEPE pts) is the fastest path to shifting the probable→preferred future cone for this county.

Top Employers — Washington County

The 10 largest employers shaping the local labor market. Tap any row for the public-data profile and AI-exposure assessment.

Economic Development Authority

Rhode Island Commerce Corporation (South County coordination)

Rhode Island Economic Development Strategic Plan -- South County coastal + URI corridor

Website

Target Sectors

Higher Education & University-Linked R&D (URI ocean-engineering, pharmacy, nursing)Defense & Maritime Engineering (NUWC Newport spillover, Electric Boat suppliers)Coastal Tourism & Hospitality (Watch Hill, Narragansett, Block Island)Blue Economy (commercial fishing, aquaculture, ocean technology)

Active Programs

+Rhode Island Commerce Corporation Qualified Jobs Incentive + Rebuild RI Tax Credit
+URI Research Foundation + Innovation Campus technology-commercialization programs
+RI Blue Economy Cluster initiatives (URI + Commerce RI + NUWC partnerships)
+RI Department of Environmental Management coastal-resilience and aquaculture programs

Recent Wins

URI Fascitelli Center for Advanced Engineering completion

$160M+2023

URI Bay Campus marine-research facility expansion

$50M+2024

Supporting detail

Open any section to dig into the underlying data.

Layoff history (WARN)

Federal layoff filings on the timeline

WARN Act Notices (2020-2026)

Notices

Workers

Layoff Rate

of total employment

2025

Workers Affected by Year

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Recent Notices

Source: Rhode Island DLT WARN. Federal WARN Act: 60-day notice for mass layoffs (50+ workers) at employers with 100+ employees.

Disruption scenarios

Exponential impact paths driven by the timeline

Exponential Impact Scenarios

Cross-signal alerts

When multiple risk signals converge on this county

Convergence Alerts

highClimate-Economic Nexusstrength 90%

Ecological 72/55Economic 69/50

Ecological stress amplifies economic disruption through insurance costs, infrastructure damage, supply chain disruptions, and forced migration patterns.

Precedent: Hurricane Katrina (2005), Texas winter storm (2021): climate events created multi-year economic disruption in affected regions.

Washington County: 2 dimensions converging above thresholds simultaneously.

Full economic profile

Demographics, employment, sectors, incentives

EVI: stableBASELINEMetro (RUCC 1)

Housing & Infrastructure

Median Home Value

$458K

Homeownership

72.4%

Median Rent

$1,460

Broadband Access

91.8%

Avg Commute

24.6 min

Labor Force Part.

63.8%

Coastal towns (Westerly / Watch Hill, Narragansett, Block Island) carry sharply elevated median home values driven by second-home and short-term-rental demand from Boston, New York, and Connecticut metros. Year-round working households face significant affordability pressure. URI student rental concentration in Kingston and South Kingstown is a separate sub-market. Inland towns (Richmond, Hopkinton) are more affordable but still well above the RI median.

Employment by Sector

Education & Health Services (URI + South County Hospital)26.8%

Trade, Transportation & Utilities16.4%

Leisure & Hospitality (seasonal coastal tourism)14.2%

Professional & Business Services (incl. defense engineering)12.6%

Government (town municipal + state)11.8%

Population & Talent

Population

130K

Change Since 2020

+0.4%

Median Age

44.6

Roughly stable: URI student inflows are durable, defense-engineering professional households from NUWC Newport spillover provide a steady upper-middle inflow, and second-home buyers from Boston, New York, and Connecticut metros continue to convert year-round housing stock. Year-round working-coastal households face affordability pressure and slow outmigration.

Washington County (locally 'South County') is one of Rhode Island's most economically diversified regions outside of Providence. The economy braids three durable strands: the University of Rhode Island's Kingston main campus and Graduate School of Oceanography as research-and-employment anchor, a high-value coastal tourism and second-home economy (Watch Hill, Narragansett Pier, Block Island ferry from Galilee), and a working commercial fishing fleet at Point Judith / Galilee. Naval Underwater Warfare Center Newport across Narragansett Bay generates a defense-engineering commuter spillover into South Kingstown and Narragansett. South County Hospital is the independent regional hospital. The county exhibits a sharp contrast between wealthy summer enclaves and working coastal towns, with year-round housing affordability strained by second-home and short-term-rental pressure. Rhode Island lacks functional county government; towns (South Kingstown, Narragansett, Westerly, Charlestown, Richmond, Hopkinton, New Shoreham) are the operating unit.

Sources

Census QuickFacts: Washington County, RI BLS Rhode Island Employment Summary Town of South Kingstown, RI University of Rhode Island

Grant matches

Federal funding aligned to county levers

Target industries

Sectors prioritized by the county strategy

Sectors aligned with the county’s diversification strategy and AI impact assessment.

1.Higher Education & Research (University of Rhode Island)

AI tailwind

The University of Rhode Island's main campus in Kingston is the dominant employment, demographic, and research anchor of Washington County. URI serves ~17,000 students with strong programs in engineering, oceanography, pharmacy, and nursing. The URI Graduate School of Oceanography on the Narragansett Bay Campus is one of the leading ocean-science research programs in the US. URI's research relationships with NUWC Newport, NOAA, and the regional fisheries industry give the county an unusually research-intensive non-metro coastal economy.

2.Coastal Tourism & Second-Home Economy

AI headwind

Washington County's coastline is one of the most economically valuable in New England: Watch Hill (Westerly) hosts ultra-wealthy summer estates; Narragansett Pier and Misquamicut are popular summer destinations; Block Island (New Shoreham) is a high-end summer island accessed via the Point Judith / Galilee ferry. The seasonal tourism + second-home economy is durable and high-margin but creates sharp seasonal employment swings and a housing-affordability squeeze on year-round workers.

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Washington County