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Globe/United States/Utah/Box Elder County

Box Elder County

Northern Utah / Wasatch Front North Edge / Great Basin Valleys / Promontory Defense Anchor, Utah · 58K people · $3.4B GDP

ReportCompareBoard BriefMeridian
Timeline
2026Present
NOW
EVENT HORIZON
2020202620302035204020452050
Northern Utah / Wasatch Front North Edge / Great Basin Valleys / Promontory Defense Anchor

Future Path

Pick a future path. Every number on this page updates with the impacts and the ranked actions for that path.

Disruption Profile

Baseline + Probable

Extreme — Active disruption underway in key sectors

High — AI Exposure Index: 28/100 -- lower vulnerability to AI-driven workforce disruption.

High — Building pressure in key sectors

Moderate — Median household income $79K (-9.6% vs state median) -- near the state median.

Moderate — Building pressure in key sectors

Moderate — Moderate exposure across select industries

Moderate — Moderate exposure across select industries

Low — Moderate exposure across select industries

Minimal — Limited disruption signal

Box Elder County vs Utah Average

Box Elder County exceeds Utah average on 6/9 dimensions. Highest divergence: Social Trust (-22)

Click a dimension label to explore

Box Elder Utah US Avg

Projected impact · 2026

Stakes for Box Elder County

Probable cone · 1.00x

With 26K jobs in Box Elder County and AI exposure at 28/100, here is what the model projects through 2031 under the probable cone (default 5-year horizon — scrub the timeline to extend).

Model: at-risk = workforce × (AI exposure ÷ 100) × ((year − 2020) ÷ 10, capped 0-1) × cone multiplier. Each STEEPE-point improvement preserves ~1% of at-risk jobs. The same formula runs backwards (retrodiction) and forwards (projection), so scrubbing pre-2026 shows what the model says was already exposed by that year.

See per-dimension breakdown

How 8 actions distribute across 5 dimensions, plus near-term vs medium-term lists.

If Box Elder County implements all 8 recommended actions, the model projects these dimensional improvements.

Education Value
54+15 pts
Close the Skills Gap with AI-Ready Credentials /Sector-Aligned K-12 + Community College Pipeline /Registered Apprenticeship Expansion: Manufacturing (aerospace / defense propulsion)
AI > AGI > ASI
66+6 pts
Anchor Employer AI Co-Investment Compact /Universal Broadband for AI Economy Participation
Economic Disruption
49+5 pts
Reduce Manufacturing (aerospace / defense propulsion) Concentration Risk
Social Trust
72+4 pts
Pre-Positioned Displaced Worker Rapid Response
Ecological Stress
70+4 pts
Climate Resilience Infrastructure Investment
Near-term (1-3 yr)+29 pts

6 actions within local control

  • - Close the Skills Gap with AI-Ready Credentials
  • - Reduce Manufacturing (aerospace / defense propulsion) Concentration Risk
  • - Sector-Aligned K-12 + Community College Pipeline
  • - Anchor Employer AI Co-Investment Compact
  • - Registered Apprenticeship Expansion: Manufacturing (aerospace / defense propulsion)
  • - Pre-Positioned Displaced Worker Rapid Response
Medium-term (3-7 yr)+5 pts

2 actions requiring partnerships or advocacy

  • - Universal Broadband for AI Economy Participation
  • - Climate Resilience Infrastructure Investment

Action Plan

Probable path

Top recommendations for Box Elder County, ranked by estimated impact. 8 total · +34 pts combined.

Who Can Act

Of 8 recommended actions for Box Elder County, 7 are within direct control. Tap a sphere to see the actions and what each one does.

Acting on the 7 local levers alone (+33 STEEPE pts) is the fastest path to shifting the probable→preferred future cone for this county.

Top Employers — Box Elder County

The 6 largest employers shaping the local labor market. Tap any row for the public-data profile and AI-exposure assessment.

Economic Development Authority

Box Elder County Economic Development / Utah Governor's Office of Economic Opportunity (GOEO)

Utah Statewide Economic Development Plan

Website

Target Sectors

Aerospace & Defense (Northrop Grumman propulsion supplier ecosystem)Logistics & Distribution (Walmart DC + regional supplier base)Agribusiness & Food Processing (Great Basin cattle, dairy, grains, orchards)Advanced Manufacturing (Wasatch Front commuter-belt supplier and contractor base)

Active Programs

  • +Utah GOEO rural county economic development partnership
  • +Aerospace and defense industry workforce development
  • +Utah State University Extension agricultural support across the Great Basin valleys
  • +Wasatch Front housing and commuter-corridor infrastructure planning

Recent Wins

Northrop Grumman propulsion systems capital investment (multi-year Promontory site modernization)
$500M+2024
Walmart Distribution Center operational expansion (Corinne area logistics footprint)
2025

Supporting detail

Open any section to dig into the underlying data.

Layoff history (WARN)

Federal layoff filings on the timeline

WARN Act Notices (2020-2026)

Notices

0

Workers

0

Layoff Rate

0%

of total employment

2025

0

Workers Affected by Year

0
2020
0
2021
0
2022
0
2023
0
2024
0
2025
0
2026

Recent Notices

Source: Utah DWS WARN. Federal WARN Act: 60-day notice for mass layoffs (50+ workers) at employers with 100+ employees.

Disruption scenarios

Exponential impact paths driven by the timeline

Exponential Impact Scenarios

Cross-signal alerts

When multiple risk signals converge on this county

Convergence Alerts

criticalFull-Spectrum Disruptionstrength 44%
AI 66/60Economic 60/60Political 60/50Social 53/45Ecological 70/45

Five or more STEEPE dimensions simultaneously elevated signals a location under compound, multi-domain disruption pressure with limited capacity to absorb shocks in any single dimension.

Precedent: Historically rare at this scale. Closest analogue: 2020 pandemic simultaneously stressed health, economic, social, political, and educational systems globally.

Box Elder County: 5 dimensions converging above thresholds simultaneously.

criticalAI-Economic Squeezestrength 20%
Economic 60/60AI 66/60Education 56/50

High economic disruption + rapid AI capability growth + education system stress creates a compound labor displacement risk. Industries face automation pressure while the workforce lacks retraining capacity.

Precedent: Rust Belt 2015-2020: manufacturing automation + trade disruption + inadequate workforce retraining led to persistent unemployment in affected counties.

Box Elder County: 3 dimensions converging above thresholds simultaneously.

highClimate-Economic Nexusstrength 63%
Ecological 70/55Economic 60/50

Ecological stress amplifies economic disruption through insurance costs, infrastructure damage, supply chain disruptions, and forced migration patterns.

Precedent: Hurricane Katrina (2005), Texas winter storm (2021): climate events created multi-year economic disruption in affected regions.

Box Elder County: 2 dimensions converging above thresholds simultaneously.

highPolitical-Economic Instabilitystrength 22%
Political 60/55Economic 60/55Social 53/50

Political instability + economic stress + declining social trust creates a governance crisis environment. Regulatory uncertainty compounds economic disruption.

Precedent: 2008-2010: Financial crisis + political polarization + institutional trust erosion created conditions for lasting policy instability.

Box Elder County: 3 dimensions converging above thresholds simultaneously.

buildingSocial-Political Fracture98% to trigger
Social 53/55 Political 60/55 ✓

Approaching convergence threshold. 1 dimension still below trigger level.

Full economic profile

Demographics, employment, sectors, incentives

EVI: stableBASELINENon-Metro (RUCC 4)

Housing & Infrastructure

Median Home Value

$413K

Homeownership

77.8%

Median Rent

$1,180

Broadband Access

87.4%

Avg Commute

25.8 min

Labor Force Part.

66.7%

Strong owner-occupancy reflects the LDS-majority family-formation pattern. Southern Box Elder County is the front line of Wasatch Front commuter spillover, pushing median values well above what a rural Utah county would otherwise see. Brigham City core and the Tremonton / Bear River Valley areas have a tighter rental market driven by defense-and-logistics workforce demand.

Employment by Sector

Manufacturing (aerospace / defense propulsion)18.4%
Trade, Transportation & Utilities (Walmart DC + logistics)17.6%
Education & Health Services16.2%
Construction9.8%
Agriculture (cattle, dairy, grains, orchards)6.4%

Population & Talent

Population

58K

Change Since 2020

+4.2%

Median Age

32.4

Modest but persistent net inflow driven by Wasatch Front commuter overflow into more affordable northern housing, plus exceptionally high natural increase from the LDS-majority population. Northrop Grumman propulsion-systems employment provides a stable engineering and skilled-trades household base; Walmart Distribution Center hiring runs counter-cyclically.

Unusually durable rural-industrial economy for a non-metro Utah county. Three structural anchors carry the county: the Northrop Grumman solid-propulsion complex at Promontory (the historic Thiokol footprint and one of the most important strategic-defense industrial assets in the western US), a major Walmart Distribution Center near Corinne, and a substantial Great Basin agricultural base (cattle, dairy, alfalfa, grains, Brigham City orchards). Wasatch Front commuter spillover from Ogden brings outside professional household income into the southern part of the county. The LDS-majority population gives Box Elder very high family-formation rates and strong civic institutions even by Utah standards.

Sources

Census QuickFacts: Box Elder County, UTBLS Utah Employment SummaryBox Elder County, Utah (government)USDA Rural-Urban Continuum Codes

Grant matches

Federal funding aligned to county levers

Target industries

Sectors prioritized by the county strategy

Sectors aligned with the county’s diversification strategy and AI impact assessment.

1.Aerospace & Defense (Northrop Grumman propulsion at Promontory)

AI tailwind

The Promontory site, historically the heart of Thiokol's solid-propulsion business and now operated under Northrop Grumman, is one of the most important strategic-defense industrial assets in the western United States. The complex produces large solid rocket motors for national-security launch, missile-defense, and space-launch customers. It anchors a high-skill engineering and skilled-trades workforce that is a meaningful outlier for a non-metro Utah county. Demand is structurally tied to national-security budgets and is unusually counter-cyclical to broader economic conditions.

2.Logistics & Distribution (Walmart Distribution Center near Corinne)

AI mixed

A major Walmart Distribution Center near Corinne is among the largest private employers in Box Elder County and a regional logistics anchor serving the Wasatch Front and Great Basin reach. The facility's footprint reflects northern Utah's role as a logistics-and-distribution corridor between Salt Lake City, Idaho, and the Pacific Northwest. Warehouse line work is among the most directly exposed slices of the local economy to picking, sorting, and inventory automation.

Back to Utah

County data: Census ACS, BLS, BEA. Disruption Profile scores 0-100 (higher = more disruption). Timeline adjusts projections.

3.Agriculture (cattle, dairy, alfalfa, grains, orchards)

AI mixed

Box Elder County spans wide Great Basin agricultural valleys with a substantial cattle, dairy, alfalfa, and small-grains base plus a historic orchard belt around Brigham City. Operations are increasingly capital-intensive and consolidating, with precision irrigation, yield modeling, and dairy automation raising returns to operator skill and capital while displacing routine farm labor. Water-availability pressure from the Great Salt Lake decline and broader western drought conditions is a real medium-term constraint.

4.Wasatch Front Commuter Economy (Ogden / north-Wasatch belt)

AI tailwind

Southern Box Elder County is the northwest edge of the Wasatch Front commuter belt feeding the Ogden metro and the broader Salt Lake economy. A growing professional-and-trades household base commutes south for employment in finance, healthcare, government, defense (Hill AFB), and the Silicon Slopes tech corridor, bringing outside household income into the local housing and retail base.

5.Healthcare & Local Services (Brigham City regional medical + civic base)

AI tailwind

Brigham City hosts a regional medical center serving Box Elder County and a broader rural catchment in northern Utah. The medical base handles a young, family-heavy patient mix (very high birth rate from the LDS-majority population), an aging rural agricultural population, and a steady defense-and-logistics workforce. Telemedicine and AI-triage tools have outsized leverage in this rural-coverage context.

Agricultural economy

Farm-sector dependence and AI exposure

Best-case opportunities

What this county wins in the preferred future

Sources

Government, academic, and live data feeds

Census QuickFacts: Box Elder County, UTBLS Utah Employment SummaryBox Elder County, Utah (government)Northrop Grumman -- Propulsion SystemsCity of Brigham City, Utah