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Globe/United States/Vermont/Rutland County

Rutland County

Southwest Vermont (Green Mountains / US-7 corridor), Vermont · 61K people · $2.5B GDP

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Timeline
2026Present
NOW
EVENT HORIZON
2020202620302035204020452050
Southwest Vermont (Green Mountains / US-7 corridor)

Future Path

Pick a future path. Every number on this page updates with the impacts and the ranked actions for that path.

Disruption Profile

Baseline + Probable

High — Active disruption underway in key sectors

Moderate — Building pressure in key sectors

Moderate — Building pressure in key sectors

Moderate — Median household income $68K (-8.8% vs state median) -- near the state median.

Moderate — Moderate exposure across select industries

Low — Moderate exposure across select industries

Low — Limited disruption signal

Minimal — Limited disruption signal

Minimal — AI Exposure Index: 22/100 -- lower vulnerability to AI-driven workforce disruption.

Rutland County vs Vermont Average

Rutland County exceeds Vermont average on 5/9 dimensions. Highest divergence: Social Trust (-34)

Click a dimension label to explore

Rutland Vermont US Avg

Projected impact · 2026

Stakes for Rutland County

Probable cone · 1.00x

With 28K jobs in Rutland County and AI exposure at 22/100, here is what the model projects through 2031 under the probable cone (default 5-year horizon — scrub the timeline to extend).

Model: at-risk = workforce × (AI exposure ÷ 100) × ((year − 2020) ÷ 10, capped 0-1) × cone multiplier. Each STEEPE-point improvement preserves ~1% of at-risk jobs. The same formula runs backwards (retrodiction) and forwards (projection), so scrubbing pre-2026 shows what the model says was already exposed by that year.

See per-dimension breakdown

How 7 actions distribute across 4 dimensions, plus near-term vs medium-term lists.

If Rutland County implements all 7 recommended actions, the model projects these dimensional improvements.

Education Value
31+15 pts
Close the Skills Gap with AI-Ready Credentials /Sector-Aligned K-12 + Community College Pipeline /Registered Apprenticeship Expansion: Education & Health Services
Economic Disruption
36+8 pts
Reduce Education & Health Services Concentration Risk
AI > AGI > ASI
6+7 pts
Anchor Employer AI Co-Investment Compact /Universal Broadband for AI Economy Participation
Social Trust
47+4 pts
Pre-Positioned Displaced Worker Rapid Response
Near-term (1-3 yr)+32 pts

6 actions within local control

  • - Reduce Education & Health Services Concentration Risk
  • - Close the Skills Gap with AI-Ready Credentials
  • - Sector-Aligned K-12 + Community College Pipeline
  • - Anchor Employer AI Co-Investment Compact
  • - Registered Apprenticeship Expansion: Education & Health Services
  • - Pre-Positioned Displaced Worker Rapid Response
Medium-term (3-7 yr)+2 pts

1 action requiring partnerships or advocacy

  • - Universal Broadband for AI Economy Participation

Action Plan

Probable path

Top recommendations for Rutland County, ranked by estimated impact. 7 total · +34 pts combined.

Who Can Act

Of 7 recommended actions for Rutland County, 6 are within direct control. Tap a sphere to see the actions and what each one does.

Acting on the 6 local levers alone (+32 STEEPE pts) is the fastest path to shifting the probable→preferred future cone for this county.

Top Employers — Rutland County

The 7 largest employers shaping the local labor market. Tap any row for the public-data profile and AI-exposure assessment.

Economic Development Authority

Rutland Region Chamber & Economic Development

Rutland Region Four-Season Recreation & Working-Lands Strategy

Website

Target Sectors

Outdoor Recreation & Four-Season Tourism (Killington/Pico year-round pivot)Healthcare (Rutland Regional Medical Center service-area expansion)Aerospace & Advanced Manufacturing (GE Aerospace Rutland + suppliers)Working Lands (dairy, local food, maple, sustainable forestry, value-added wood)

Active Programs

  • +Vermont Communications Union District (CUD) broadband buildout for Rutland County towns
  • +Working Lands Enterprise Initiative grants (VT Agency of Ag, Food & Markets)
  • +VT Department of Tourism & Marketing four-season campaigns
  • +Castleton University workforce-pipeline programs (health, business, education)

Recent Wins

Rutland Regional Medical Center sustained regional anchor (largest community hospital in VT)
2024
GE Aerospace Rutland plant continued production of aircraft-engine components
2024

Supporting detail

Open any section to dig into the underlying data.

Layoff history (WARN)

Federal layoff filings on the timeline

WARN Act Notices (2020-2026)

Notices

0

Workers

0

Layoff Rate

0%

of total employment

2025

0

Workers Affected by Year

0
2020
0
2021
0
2022
0
2023
0
2024
0
2025
0
2026

Recent Notices

Source: Vermont DOL WARN. Federal WARN Act: 60-day notice for mass layoffs (50+ workers) at employers with 100+ employees.

Disruption scenarios

Exponential impact paths driven by the timeline

Exponential Impact Scenarios

Cross-signal alerts

When multiple risk signals converge on this county

Convergence Alerts

buildingClimate-Economic Nexus97% to trigger
Ecological 64/55 ✓Economic 47/50

Approaching convergence threshold. 1 dimension still below trigger level.

Full economic profile

Demographics, employment, sectors, incentives

EVI: transitionalBASELINENon-Metro (RUCC 7)

Housing & Infrastructure

Median Home Value

$235K

Homeownership

72%

Median Rent

$950

Broadband Access

82.0%

Avg Commute

21.5 min

Labor Force Part.

60.5%

Modestly affordable relative to Burlington / Chittenden County, but VT's overall housing crunch and out-of-state vacation-home demand around Killington pull starter-home inventory tight. Rural broadband and aging housing stock are significant friction points for in-migration.

Employment by Sector

Education & Health Services22%
Leisure & Hospitality (ski / tourism / lodging / food)14.5%
Trade, Transportation & Utilities17%
Manufacturing (GE Aerospace + light industry)9%
Construction6.5%

Population & Talent

Population

61K

Change Since 2020

-1.5%

Median Age

47.5

Net stable to slightly losing. Pandemic-era remote-work in-migration into VT lifted the floor briefly, but younger working-age outmigration continues to drag the long-term trend. Tourism-season inflows mask underlying year-round demographics.

Southwest Vermont anchored by Killington/Pico tourism, Rutland Regional Medical Center, and GE Aerospace's Rutland plant. Genuine four-season recreation economy is exposed to climate-shortened ski seasons. Population is older and slowly shrinking, with one of the most aged demographic profiles in a state already with the second-oldest median age in the US. Real but no longer acute opioid pressure (Rutland was a notable early hotspot in the 2014 wave). Working dairy landscape continues to consolidate. Strong local-food and maple economy partially offsets dairy contraction.

Sources

Census QuickFacts: Rutland County, VTBLS Vermont Employment SummaryRutland Regional Medical CenterVT Agency of Commerce & Community Development

Grant matches

Federal funding aligned to county levers

Target industries

Sectors prioritized by the county strategy

Sectors aligned with the county’s diversification strategy and AI impact assessment.

1.Outdoor Recreation & Tourism (Killington / Pico)

AI mixed

Killington Resort and Pico Mountain together form the largest ski operation in the Eastern United States and the largest single private employer in Rutland County during winter season. Four-season pivot (mountain biking, golf, hiking) is underway but heavily exposed to climate-shortened winters.

2.Healthcare (Rutland Regional Medical Center)

AI tailwind

Rutland Regional Medical Center is the largest community-based hospital in Vermont and the regional anchor for southwestern VT. Serves a fast-aging population, real opioid-crisis caseload, and ski-injury demand. Telehealth and AI-assisted diagnostics have outsized value in this rural-isolation context.

3.Aerospace Manufacturing (GE Aerospace Rutland)

Back to Vermont

County data: Census ACS, BLS, BEA. Disruption Profile scores 0-100 (higher = more disruption). Timeline adjusts projections.

AI tailwind

GE Aerospace operates a long-established Rutland plant producing aircraft-engine components. One of the largest private-sector industrial employers in the county. Predictive maintenance, computer-vision inspection, and AI-assisted CNC scheduling are concrete productivity paths.

4.Dairy & Local-Food Agriculture

AI mixed

Rutland County remains a working dairy landscape, though the herd count and number of farms have consolidated for two decades. Strong VT local-food economy (cheese, maple, vegetables) provides partial offset. AI applied to herd health, feed optimization, and supply-chain logistics is the leverage point.

5.Sustainable Forestry & Wood Products

AI mixed

Green Mountain National Forest covers a significant share of the county. Sustainable forestry, maple sugaring, and value-added wood products are a long-term economic pillar exposed to climate shifts in the maple zone and to evolving carbon-credit and ecosystem-service markets.

Best-case opportunities

What this county wins in the preferred future

Sources

Government, academic, and live data feeds

Census QuickFacts: Rutland County, VTBLS: Vermont Employment SummaryRutland Regional Medical CenterRutland Region Chamber & Visitors BureauCastleton University (Vermont State University)VT Agency of Commerce & Community Development