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Globe/United States/Washington/Grant County

Grant County

Columbia Basin (Central Washington), Washington · 99K people · $4.0B GDP

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Timeline
2026Present
NOW
EVENT HORIZON
2020202620302035204020452050
Columbia Basin (Central Washington)

Future Path

Pick a future path. Every number on this page updates with the impacts and the ranked actions for that path.

Disruption Profile

Baseline + Probable

Extreme — AI Exposure Index: 48/100 -- lower vulnerability to AI-driven workforce disruption.

Extreme — Active disruption underway in key sectors

High — Median household income $65K (-30.8% vs state median) -- significantly below state average, limiting consumer spending and tax base.

High — Building pressure in key sectors

High — Building pressure in key sectors

Moderate — Building pressure in key sectors

Moderate — Moderate exposure across select industries

Low — Limited disruption signal

Minimal — Limited disruption signal

Grant County vs Washington Average

Grant County exceeds Washington average on 7/9 dimensions. Highest divergence: Social Trust (-25)

Click a dimension label to explore

Grant Washington US Avg

Projected impact · 2026

Stakes for Grant County

Probable cone · 1.00x

With 44K jobs in Grant County and AI exposure at 48/100, here is what the model projects through 2031 under the probable cone (default 5-year horizon — scrub the timeline to extend).

Model: at-risk = workforce × (AI exposure ÷ 100) × ((year − 2020) ÷ 10, capped 0-1) × cone multiplier. Each STEEPE-point improvement preserves ~1% of at-risk jobs. The same formula runs backwards (retrodiction) and forwards (projection), so scrubbing pre-2026 shows what the model says was already exposed by that year.

See per-dimension breakdown

How 10 actions distribute across 5 dimensions, plus near-term vs medium-term lists.

If Grant County implements all 10 recommended actions, the model projects these dimensional improvements.

Education Value
57+23 pts
Close the Skills Gap with AI-Ready Credentials /Pre-emptive Reskilling Pipeline: Field labor in irrigated agriculture /Sector-Aligned K-12 + Community College Pipeline /Registered Apprenticeship Expansion: Agriculture, Forestry & Food Manufacturing /Sector-Pivot Scholarship Voucher
AI > AGI > ASI
94+6 pts
Anchor Employer AI Co-Investment Compact /Universal Broadband for AI Economy Participation
Economic Disruption
70+5 pts
Reduce Agriculture, Forestry & Food Manufacturing Concentration Risk
Social Trust
40+4 pts
Pre-Positioned Displaced Worker Rapid Response
Ecological Stress
70+4 pts
Climate Resilience Infrastructure Investment
Near-term (1-3 yr)+34 pts

7 actions within local control

  • - Close the Skills Gap with AI-Ready Credentials
  • - Reduce Agriculture, Forestry & Food Manufacturing Concentration Risk
  • - Pre-emptive Reskilling Pipeline: Field labor in irrigated agriculture
  • - Sector-Aligned K-12 + Community College Pipeline
  • - Anchor Employer AI Co-Investment Compact
  • - Registered Apprenticeship Expansion: Agriculture, Forestry & Food Manufacturing
  • - Pre-Positioned Displaced Worker Rapid Response
Medium-term (3-7 yr)+8 pts

3 actions requiring partnerships or advocacy

  • - Universal Broadband for AI Economy Participation
  • - Climate Resilience Infrastructure Investment
  • - Sector-Pivot Scholarship Voucher

Action Plan

Probable path

Top recommendations for Grant County, ranked by estimated impact. 10 total · +42 pts combined.

Who Can Act

Of 10 recommended actions for Grant County, 9 are within direct control. Tap a sphere to see the actions and what each one does.

Acting on the 9 local levers alone (+41 STEEPE pts) is the fastest path to shifting the probable→preferred future cone for this county.

Top Employers — Grant County

The 10 largest employers shaping the local labor market. Tap any row for the public-data profile and AI-exposure assessment.

Economic Development Authority

Grant County Economic Development Council

Columbia Basin Diversification & Infrastructure Strategy

Website

Target Sectors

Hyperscale Data Centers & AI Infrastructure (Quincy cluster spillover)Clean-Energy Materials (SGL Carbon graphite, REC Silicon polysilicon)Ag-Tech and Precision IrrigationAerospace Test & Advanced Manufacturing (Grant County International Airport)Workforce Training (Big Bend Community College pipelines)

Active Programs

  • +Grant County PUD industrial-power siting / fiber programs
  • +WA Dept. of Commerce strategic reserve / siting incentives
  • +Big Bend Community College workforce credentials (aviation, ag-tech, nursing)
  • +USBR Columbia Basin Project operations and water-delivery planning

Recent Wins

SGL Carbon graphite production expansion (Moses Lake, EV anode materials)
$100M+2023
Hyperscaler campus expansions in adjacent Quincy / central WA corridor
$1B+2024

Supporting detail

Open any section to dig into the underlying data.

Layoff history (WARN)

Federal layoff filings on the timeline

WARN Act Notices (2020-2026)

Notices

0

Workers

0

Layoff Rate

0%

of total employment

2025

0

Workers Affected by Year

0
2020
0
2021
0
2022
0
2023
0
2024
0
2025
0
2026

Recent Notices

Source: Washington ESD WARN. Federal WARN Act: 60-day notice for mass layoffs (50+ workers) at employers with 100+ employees.

Disruption scenarios

Exponential impact paths driven by the timeline

Exponential Impact Scenarios

Cross-signal alerts

When multiple risk signals converge on this county

Convergence Alerts

criticalAI-Economic Squeezestrength 82%
Economic 81/60AI 94/60Education 59/50

High economic disruption + rapid AI capability growth + education system stress creates a compound labor displacement risk. Industries face automation pressure while the workforce lacks retraining capacity.

Precedent: Rust Belt 2015-2020: manufacturing automation + trade disruption + inadequate workforce retraining led to persistent unemployment in affected counties.

Grant County: 3 dimensions converging above thresholds simultaneously.

highClimate-Economic Nexusstrength 88%
Ecological 70/55Economic 81/50

Ecological stress amplifies economic disruption through insurance costs, infrastructure damage, supply chain disruptions, and forced migration patterns.

Precedent: Hurricane Katrina (2005), Texas winter storm (2021): climate events created multi-year economic disruption in affected regions.

Grant County: 2 dimensions converging above thresholds simultaneously.

moderateTech Convergence Accelerationstrength 82%
AI 94/65Quantum 72/50Bitcoin 49/40

Multiple technology frontiers advancing simultaneously creates compounding disruption. AI + quantum + crypto adoption reshapes financial infrastructure, cybersecurity, and labor markets in parallel.

Precedent: 2020-2025: Simultaneous AI scaling + crypto ETF approval + quantum error correction milestones accelerated disruption beyond single-technology projections.

Grant County: 3 dimensions converging above thresholds simultaneously.

Full economic profile

Demographics, employment, sectors, incentives

EVI: stableBASELINENon-Metro (RUCC 5)

Housing & Infrastructure

Median Home Value

$313K

Homeownership

66.7%

Median Rent

$1,040

Broadband Access

86.1%

Avg Commute

19.8 min

Labor Force Part.

61.5%

Housing affordability stressed by data-center construction-trade demand and seasonal farmworker housing shortage. Far cheaper than Puget Sound but tightening fast. State farmworker housing programs and county-level efforts only partially close the gap.

Employment by Sector

Agriculture, Forestry & Food Manufacturing18.5%
Trade, Transportation & Utilities17.2%
Education & Health Services14.8%
Construction9.4%
Manufacturing (incl. SGL Carbon, REC Silicon)7.6%

Population & Talent

Population

99K

Change Since 2020

+1.6%

Median Age

30.5

Modest net in-migration, driven by ag-sector workforce, data-center construction trades, and EV materials buildout. Hispanic population is ~42%.

Grant County sits at an unusual intersection: heavy irrigated-ag base (top-producing US potato county, plus apples, hops, wine grapes, dairy) layered with hyperscale data-center spillover from the Quincy cluster (Microsoft, Sabey, Vantage, NTT) and EV battery materials (SGL Carbon, Moses Lake). Cheap hydro from Grand Coulee and Wanapum (~3.5¢/kWh) plus NTT Coast-to-Coast fiber anchor the infrastructure thesis. The vulnerability is concentrated in farm labor displacement, water-rights conflict, and wildfire smoke exposure, not in the underlying economic base.

Sources

Census QuickFacts: Grant County, WABLS: Washington Employment SummaryEIA Washington State Energy ProfileGrant County Economic Development CouncilUSBR Grand Coulee Dam (Columbia Basin Project)

Grant matches

Federal funding aligned to county levers

Target industries

Sectors prioritized by the county strategy

Sectors aligned with the county’s diversification strategy and AI impact assessment.

1.Hyperscale Data Centers (Microsoft, Sabey, Vantage, NTT)

AI tailwind

Central Washington along the Columbia River is one of the densest hyperscaler data-center clusters in North America, anchored by ~3.5¢/kWh hydro from Grand Coulee and Wanapum, NTT Coast-to-Coast fiber, and a cool climate that cuts cooling costs. Quincy (Douglas/Grant border) hosts Microsoft, Sabey, Vantage, NTT campuses; Grant County captures spillover load, fiber, and substation capacity. Direct headcount is small relative to capex, but property-tax and utility-revenue impact is large.

2.Irrigated Agriculture / Columbia Basin Project

AI mixed

Grant County is the operational heart of the Columbia Basin Irrigation Project (USBR), fed from Grand Coulee Dam via Banks Lake. The county is consistently the top US producer of potatoes and a major producer of apples, hops, wine grapes, sweet corn, and dairy. AI is reshaping the labor structure (autonomous tractors, robotic harvest, precision irrigation) while water-rights pressure with tribal and downstream interests intensifies under climate stress.

Back to Washington

County data: Census ACS, BLS, BEA. Disruption Profile scores 0-100 (higher = more disruption). Timeline adjusts projections.

3.Aerospace Test / Boeing (Moses Lake)

AI mixed

Grant County International Airport at Moses Lake (former Larson AFB) has one of the longest commercial runways in the US and serves as a Boeing flight-test and pilot-training base. Japan Airlines and other carriers also run training programs here. AI-assisted flight test analysis and simulator integration is a growth vector; airport-adjacent industrial land is being marketed for advanced manufacturing.

4.EV Battery Materials / SGL Carbon

AI tailwind

SGL Carbon operates a graphite production facility in Moses Lake that feeds the EV battery anode supply chain. Combined with the planned REC Silicon polysilicon restart (semis and solar feedstock), Moses Lake is being repositioned as a US clean-energy materials node. Federal IRA + CHIPS dollars and state siting incentives accelerate the buildout.

5.Workforce Training / Big Bend Community College

AI tailwind

Big Bend Community College (Moses Lake) is the county's primary post-secondary institution, offering aviation maintenance, commercial pilot training, ag-tech, nursing, and short-cycle credentials. As data centers, EV materials, and aerospace test work scale, Big Bend is the obvious pipeline for technician roles, though four-year attainment in the county remains far below the WA average.

Agricultural economy

Farm-sector dependence and AI exposure

Best-case opportunities

What this county wins in the preferred future

Sources

Government, academic, and live data feeds

Census QuickFacts: Grant County, WABLS: Washington Employment SummaryEIA Washington State Energy ProfileGrant County, Washington (official)Grant County Economic Development CouncilBig Bend Community CollegeUSBR Grand Coulee Dam (Columbia Basin Project)