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Globe/United States/Wyoming/Campbell County

Campbell County

Powder River Basin (NE Wyoming), Wyoming · 47K people · $3.5B GDP

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2026Present
NOW
EVENT HORIZON
2020202620302035204020452050
Powder River Basin (NE Wyoming)

Future Path

Pick a future path. Every number on this page updates with the impacts and the ranked actions for that path.

Disruption Profile

Baseline + Probable

High — Median household income $85K (+16.8% vs state median) -- well above state average, providing economic cushion.

High — Building pressure in key sectors

High — Building pressure in key sectors

High — Building pressure in key sectors

Moderate — Moderate exposure across select industries

Moderate — Moderate exposure across select industries

Low — Limited disruption signal

Minimal — AI Exposure Index: 24/100 -- lower vulnerability to AI-driven workforce disruption.

Minimal — Limited disruption signal

Campbell County vs Wyoming Average

Campbell County exceeds Wyoming average on 3/9 dimensions. Highest divergence: Social Trust (-34)

Click a dimension label to explore

Campbell Wyoming US Avg

Projected impact · 2026

Stakes for Campbell County

Probable cone · 1.00x

With 23K jobs in Campbell County and AI exposure at 24/100, here is what the model projects through 2031 under the probable cone (default 5-year horizon — scrub the timeline to extend).

Model: at-risk = workforce × (AI exposure ÷ 100) × ((year − 2020) ÷ 10, capped 0-1) × cone multiplier. Each STEEPE-point improvement preserves ~1% of at-risk jobs. The same formula runs backwards (retrodiction) and forwards (projection), so scrubbing pre-2026 shows what the model says was already exposed by that year.

See per-dimension breakdown

How 8 actions distribute across 5 dimensions, plus near-term vs medium-term lists.

If Campbell County implements all 8 recommended actions, the model projects these dimensional improvements.

Education Value
20+15 pts
Close the Skills Gap with AI-Ready Credentials /Sector-Aligned K-12 + Community College Pipeline /Registered Apprenticeship Expansion: Mining, Quarrying & Oil/Gas Extraction
Economic Disruption
62+8 pts
Reduce Mining, Quarrying & Oil/Gas Extraction Concentration Risk
AI > AGI > ASI
7+6 pts
Anchor Employer AI Co-Investment Compact /Universal Broadband for AI Economy Participation
Social Trust
50+4 pts
Pre-Positioned Displaced Worker Rapid Response
Ecological Stress
75+4 pts
Climate Resilience Infrastructure Investment
Near-term (1-3 yr)+32 pts

6 actions within local control

  • - Reduce Mining, Quarrying & Oil/Gas Extraction Concentration Risk
  • - Close the Skills Gap with AI-Ready Credentials
  • - Sector-Aligned K-12 + Community College Pipeline
  • - Anchor Employer AI Co-Investment Compact
  • - Registered Apprenticeship Expansion: Mining, Quarrying & Oil/Gas Extraction
  • - Pre-Positioned Displaced Worker Rapid Response
Medium-term (3-7 yr)+5 pts

2 actions requiring partnerships or advocacy

  • - Universal Broadband for AI Economy Participation
  • - Climate Resilience Infrastructure Investment

Action Plan

Probable path

Top recommendations for Campbell County, ranked by estimated impact. 8 total · +37 pts combined.

Who Can Act

Of 8 recommended actions for Campbell County, 7 are within direct control. Tap a sphere to see the actions and what each one does.

Acting on the 7 local levers alone (+36 STEEPE pts) is the fastest path to shifting the probable→preferred future cone for this county.

Top Employers — Campbell County

The 10 largest employers shaping the local labor market. Tap any row for the public-data profile and AI-exposure assessment.

Combined headcount across profiled employers: 48K globally · 9 not yet profiled

Economic Development Authority

Energy Capital Economic Development

Powder River Basin Diversification Strategy

Website

Target Sectors

Energy Transition (carbon capture, hydrogen, nuclear small-modular)Advanced Manufacturing (heavy equipment, mining-services fabrication)Healthcare & Behavioral HealthWorkforce Training (Gillette College energy-trades programs)

Active Programs

  • +Wyoming Innovation Partnership (WIP) workforce grants
  • +RECOMPETE federal pilot (energy-transition retraining)
  • +Wyoming Business Council Community Development Block Grants
  • +Mineral Royalty Grant Program (state-funded local infrastructure)

Recent Wins

Wyoming Integrated Test Center (CCUS R&D, Dry Fork Station)
$15M+2018
Powder River Basin Diversification Initiative (federal RECOMPETE pilot)
$20M+2024

Supporting detail

Open any section to dig into the underlying data.

Layoff history (WARN)

Federal layoff filings on the timeline

WARN Act Notices (2020-2026)

Notices

0

Workers

0

Layoff Rate

0%

of total employment

2025

0

Workers Affected by Year

0
2020
0
2021
0
2022
0
2023
0
2024
0
2025
0
2026

Recent Notices

Source: Wyoming DWS WARN. Federal WARN Act: 60-day notice for mass layoffs (50+ workers) at employers with 100+ employees.

Disruption scenarios

Exponential impact paths driven by the timeline

Exponential Impact Scenarios

Cross-signal alerts

When multiple risk signals converge on this county

Convergence Alerts

highClimate-Economic Nexusstrength 100%
Ecological 75/55Economic 73/50

Ecological stress amplifies economic disruption through insurance costs, infrastructure damage, supply chain disruptions, and forced migration patterns.

Precedent: Hurricane Katrina (2005), Texas winter storm (2021): climate events created multi-year economic disruption in affected regions.

Campbell County: 2 dimensions converging above thresholds simultaneously.

Full economic profile

Demographics, employment, sectors, incentives

EVI: transitionalBASELINENon-Metro (RUCC 5)

Housing & Infrastructure

Median Home Value

$254K

Homeownership

71.4%

Median Rent

$1,010

Broadband Access

88.2%

Avg Commute

18.6 min

Labor Force Part.

70.4%

Boom-bust housing market tracking coal/gas cycles. Affordability solid relative to coastal markets but volatile. Surplus inventory in down cycles drives values lower than mountain-west average.

Employment by Sector

Mining, Quarrying & Oil/Gas Extraction28.5%
Trade, Transportation & Utilities15.8%
Education & Health Services12.2%
Construction9.1%
Leisure & Hospitality7.8%

Population & Talent

Population

47K

Change Since 2020

-1.4%

Median Age

33.8

Younger workers leaving as coal jobs contract. Net out-migration since 2015. Exception: short boom-bust spikes during gas drilling cycles.

Powder River Basin coal economy in structural decline. County production down ~52% from 2008 peak (462M -> 220M tons annual). Strong fiscal base from severance taxes still funds excellent local services, but population peaked ~2014 and is slowly contracting. Federal energy-transition dollars (RECOMPETE, IIJA, IRA) and the Wyoming Integrated Test Center represent the most concrete diversification bets.

Sources

Census ACS 2024: Campbell County, WYBLS LAUS: Campbell CountyEIA Wyoming State Energy ProfileEnergy Capital Economic Development

Grant matches

Federal funding aligned to county levers

Target industries

Sectors prioritized by the county strategy

Sectors aligned with the county’s diversification strategy and AI impact assessment.

1.Coal Mining (Powder River Basin)

AI headwind

Campbell County is the heart of the Powder River Basin, supplying ~40% of all US coal. Production has fallen from 462M tons (2008 peak) to under 220M tons by 2024. Three of the five largest US coal mines are in the county (North Antelope Rochelle, Black Thunder, Cordero Rojo). Structural decline as utility coal demand collapses.

2.Natural Gas & Coalbed Methane

AI mixed

Coalbed methane production from PRB seams partially offsets coal decline in revenue terms but with far lower employment per dollar. Methane emissions monitoring is becoming a regulatory and AI-software growth area (EPA OOOOb, EU CBAM pressure on US gas exports).

3.Energy Services & Industrial Services

AI mixed
Back to Wyoming

County data: Census ACS, BLS, BEA, EIA. Disruption Profile scores 0-100 (higher = more disruption). Timeline adjusts projections.

Halliburton, Schlumberger, and dozens of regional firms service the mines and gas wells. Equipment maintenance, blasting, hauling, water management. AI-driven predictive maintenance is the largest near-term opportunity for productivity gain (and headcount reduction).

4.Healthcare (regional medical hub for NE Wyoming)

AI tailwind

Campbell County Health is the only full-service hospital for ~150 miles in any direction. Serves coal-country opioid crisis caseload, mining injuries, aging population. Telemedicine and AI triage have outsized impact in this isolation context.

5.Workforce Training & Energy Transition

AI tailwind

Gillette College + federal RECOMPETE / IIJA / IRA funding flowing into PRB transition workforce retraining. Wind energy buildout in eastern Wyoming creates partial offset. Carbon-capture R&D at Wyoming Integrated Test Center (in-county at Dry Fork Station) is the most ambitious bet.

Best-case opportunities

What this county wins in the preferred future

Sources

Government, academic, and live data feeds

Census QuickFacts: Campbell County, WYEIA Wyoming State Energy ProfileWyoming Mining AssociationCampbell County Economic DevelopmentWyoming Integrated Test CenterBLS: Wyoming Employment Summary